Cowen’s Rob Stone Comments on Ascent Solar (Nasdaq:ASTI) - Maintains Neutral Rating

Apr 08, 2009
Author: SCP Editor

April 8, 2009 – Analyst Comments – Cowen & Company’s Rob Stone maintained his NEUTRAL rating on Ascent Solar (Nasdaq:ASTI) this morning, while cutting EPS estimates to reflect higher Capex/watt and a slower capacity ramp. He said he expects shares to track the market until volume production is nearer.

Key Takeaways

·         Production at its 1.5MW pilot plant began last month but product certification is likely not going to happen until year end (EIPV products may be sold without any certification).

·         Cutting EPS – 2009E loss per share of $(0.84), with 2010-12 per share estimates at $(0.58) , $(0.30) and $0.37, modeling 2010-12 revenue of $47M, $110M and $210M, cutting GM to about 16%, 14% and 20% on higher depreciation. Could be significant downside to estimates without funding via an assumed equity offering, debt and warrant exercise.

·         Slower initial ramp will be offset y higher EIPV ASP.

·         The recently opened Thornton plan is large enough for about 40MW – note that established competitors typically build 120MW in a single location.

·         Maintaining NEUTRAL rating.