The IEA Releases International Energy Outlook through 2030

Jun 25, 2008
Author: SCP Editor

June 25, 2008 - The EIA released its International Energy Outlook this morning. Here are some of the highlights:

Note: All data is based on the IEO2008 reference case.

·         World marketed energy consumption is projected to increase by 50 percent from 2005 to 2030. Total energy demand in the non-OECD countries increases by 85 percent, compared with an increase of 19 percent in the OECD countries.

·         In nominal terms, world oil prices are expected to decline to around $70 per barrel in 2015, and then rise steadily to $113 per barrel in 2030 ($70 per barrel in inflation adjusted 2006 dollars). In a “high price” case, world oil prices in 2030 are $186 per barrel.

·         World liquids demand – total supply in 2030 is projected to be 28.2 million barrels per day higher than the 84.3 million barrels per day in 2005.

·         Unconventional resources (e.g., oil sands, extra-heavy oil, coal-to-liquids, and gas-to-liquids) are expected to increase dramatically. World production of unconventional resources, which were at 2.5 million barrels per day in 2005, increases to 9.7 million bpd in 2003 (9% of the total world liquids supply in 2030)

·         Worldwide natural gas consumption increases from 104 trillion cubic feet in 2005 to 158 trillion cubic feet in 2030, replacing oil wherever possible.

·         World coal consumption is expected to increase from 123 quadrillion Btu in 2005 to 202 quadrillion Btu in 2030. China’s coal use has almost doubled since 2000, and accounts for 71 percent of the world coal consumption reference case. The U.S. and India each account for 9 percent of the world increase.

·         World net electricity generation doubles from 17.3 trillion kilowatthours in 2005 to 24.2 trillion kwh in 2015, to 33.3 trillion kwh in 2030.

·         Electricity generation from nuclear power is projected to increase from 2.6 trillion kwh in 2005 to 3.8 trillion kwh in 2030. The 2008 projection for nuclear generation in 2025 is 31 percent higher than the projection published 5 years ago.

·         The world’s installed nuclear capacity grows from 374 GW in 2005 to 498 GW in 2030.

·         Consumption of hydroelectricity and other renewable resources increases by 2.1 percent per year from 35 quadrillion Btu in 2005 to 59 quadrillion Btu in 2030.

·         Renewable energy (non-hydro) grows by 1.6 percent per year from 2005 to 2030, faster than all other sources of electricity excepting natural gas.

·         The Key Driver for liquid fuels – Transportation – the transportation share of total liquids consumption increases from 52 percent in 2005 to 58 percent in 2030.

·         World carbon dioxide emissions continue to increase from 28.1 billion metric tons in 2005 to 34.3 billion metric tons in 2030 – an increase of 51 percent.