World Energy Use to Grow 49% Between 2007 and 2035

May 25, 2010
Author: SCP Editor

May 25, 2010 – The EIA reported this morning that world energy use is forecast to grow 49% between 2007 and 2035, noting that “renewables are the fastest-growing source of world energy supply” although fossil fuels will still meet more than 75% of total energy needs in 2035 – all things being equal.

Other key findings:

·         China and India are among the nations least impacted by the global recession, and they will continue to lead the world's economic and energy demand growth into the future. In 2007, China and India together accounted for about 20% of total world energy consumption. With strong economic growth in both countries over the projection period, their combined energy use more than doubles by 2035, when they account for 30 percent of world energy use in the IEO2010 Reference case. In contrast, the projected U.S. share of world energy consumption falls from 21 percent in 2007 to about 16 percent in 2035.

·         In the Reference case, oil prices rise to $108 per barrel by 2020 (in real 2008 dollars) and $133 per barrel by 2035. Total liquid fuels consumption projected for 2035 is 28 percent or 24.5 million barrels per day higher than the 2007 level of 86.1 million barrels per day.

·         From 2007 to 2035, total world energy consumption rises by an average annual 1.4 percent in the IEO2010 Reference case. Strong economic growth among the non-OECD (Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development) nations drives the increase. Non-OECD energy use increases by 2.2 percent per year; in the OECD countries energy use grows by only 0.5 percent per year.

·         In the absence of additional national policies and/or binding international agreements that would limit or reduce greenhouse gas emissions, world coal consumption is projected to increase from 132 quadrillion Btu in 2007 to 206 quadrillion Btu in 2035, at an average annual rate of 1.6 percent. China alone accounts for 78 percent of the total net increase in world coal use from 2007 to 2035.

·         World net electricity generation increases by 87 percent, from 18.8 trillion kilowatthours in 2007 to 35.2 trillion kilowatthours in 2035. Renewables are the fastest growing source of new electricity generation, increasing by 3.0 percent per year in the Reference case; followed by coal-fired generation, which increases by 2.3 percent per year.

·         In the IEO2010 Reference case, energy-related carbon dioxide emissions rise from 29.7 billion metric tons in 2007 to 42.4 billion metric tons in 2035--an increase of 43 percent. Much of the increase in carbon dioxide emissions is projected to occur among the developing nations of the world, especially in Asia.