July 22, 2008 - Ultralife Batteries (Nasdaq:ULBI) announced this morning that it has received an $11 million order for its BA-5390 battery from the U.S. Department of Defense. We wrote on July 9, that at $10.67, based on the company’s recent guidance upward, that the stock looked cheap and we suggested, based on our analysis, that our target for the stock is in the $18 range. We reiterate that sentiment this morning, ahead of the company’s scheduled earnings release on July 31.
Here is a recap from our July 9 analysis:
July 9, 2008 – Ultralife Batteries (Nasdaq:ULBI) reported this morning that it is raising its Q2 revenue guidance from $75 million to $88 million, an increase of 17% due to strong shipments and accelerated deliveries of its products. First Call’s estimate is $66.43 million, so it looks like ULBI is going to blow away the numbers. We have adjusted our model, and moving our FY target for the company up from $250 million to $260 million. At a 1.25x P/S on forecasted revenue of $260 million, this would put our price target at $18.11, a 67% increase from yesterday’s close at $10.67. Our forecasted earnings for the company are $12.8 million, which should result in about $0.71 per share earnings. At a 25x P/E on forecasted earnings, our price target would be $17.78, or about 66% up from yesterday’s closing price.
As an aside, we think the company is going to blow away our $260 million number, because in order to arrive at that, after adjusting for the company’s revised guidance this morning, we had to tame down Q3 and Q4 sequential growth to about 7% to 8%, which would be a radically slower clip than the 34% growth from Q4, 2008 to Q1, 2008, and then the 77% growth we now expect from Q1, 2008 to Q2, 2008’s numbers.
The company’s products and services include batteries, charging systems, standby power systems, communications accessories, communications and electronic systems, design, installation and maintenance. Customers include GM, Verizon, Comcast, Energizer, General Dynamics, L3, Harris and Raytheon. We think the business is phenomenally well positioned across government and defense and commercial markets, and a broad set of applications that it addresses.
Key drivers for the business include:
· Portable power –more devices are going portable, getting smaller and more power intensive; in addition, emerging technologies such as fuel cells, nanomaterials and super capacitors are gaining steam
· Standby power – networked communications are everywhere, a decreasing dependence on the grid, and a conversion from lead acid to Lithium-ION
· Communications & electronic systems – becoming more integrated and there are more improvements in component architectureSo the business is executing and the secular trends bode well for the stock. At the current $10.67 price level, we think the risk-reward on the stock is compelling.
The markets are likely to sell of this morning, so there could be an opportunity to accumulate more ULBI on broader market weakness, and we think that strategy makes sense.
Disclosure Note: SCPEditor has no position in ULBI.